財æ¿ã«å¯Ÿããæžå¿µææãšãããé·æéå©ã®äžæ
ãè¿å¹Žã®è²¡æ¿ææšã¯æ¹åãç¶ããŠãããæ¥éã®è³é埪ç°çµ±èšã«ããã°ã23幎12ææ«ã®äžè¬æ¿åºåµåæ®é«ïŒïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°æ¯ã¯ã³ããåã®æ°ŽæºãŸã§æ»ã£ãŠããããŸããçŽåµåïŒïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°æ¯ã«è³ã£ãŠã¯ãå®ã«13幎ã¶ãã®äœæ°ŽæºãŸã§äžãã£ãŠããããããã足å
ã®é·æéå©äžæã§å©æãè²»ãå¢ããããšãçç±ã«ã財æ¿æªåãæžå¿µããåããå°ãªããªãã
ããã ãé·æéå©ã®äžæãã€ã³ãã¬çãåç®çµæžæé·çã®äžæã«åºã¥ããã®ã§ããã°ãäžæ¹ã§çšåãå¢ãããããå¿
ãããé·æéå©ã®äžæã財æ¿æªåã«çŽçµãããšã¯éããªããããã§æ¬çš¿ã§ã¯ãé·æéå©ãšè²¡æ¿ã®é¢ä¿ã«ã€ããŠæ€èšããä»åŸã®æ¿ç察å¿ã«ã€ããŠèããŠã¿ããã
éå©äžæå±é¢ã§ããã財æ¿æ¹å
ããŸããæ¥æ¬ã®ä»£è¡šçãªè²¡æ¿ææšã§ãããã©ã€ããªãŒãã©ã³ã¹ïŒïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°æ¯ïŒä»¥äžãïŒïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°ïŒãšé·æéå©ã®é¢ä¿ãèŠããšããããé·æéå©ãäžããå±é¢ã§ïŒ°ïŒ¢ïŒïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°ãæ¹åããäžããå±é¢ã§æªåããé¢ä¿ã«ããããšãããããç¹ã«1980幎代åŸåã®ããã«æã«ã¯é·æéå©ãäžããäžã§ïŒ°ïŒ¢ïŒïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°ãé»åå¹
ãæ¡å€§ãã90幎以éã®ããã«åŽ©å£æã«ã¯é·æéå©ãäžããäžã§ïŒ°ïŒ¢ã¯èµ€åã«è»¢æããŠããããŸããæŠåŸæé·ã®æ¯æ°å埩æãšãªã£ããããªã¿æ¯æ°æããé·æéå©ãå°å¹
äžæããäžã§ïŒ°ïŒ¢ïŒïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°ã¯èµ€åå¹
ã倧å¹
ã«çž®å°ããŠããããããŠãã³ããã·ã§ãã¯ã§ïŒ°ïŒ¢ïŒïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°ã倧å¹
æªåããŠä»¥éããé·æéå©ãäžæããäžã§èµ€åå¹
ãçž®å°ããŠããã
ããã®èæ¯ã«ã¯ã
ïŒ1ïŒããããé·æéå©ãäžæããå±é¢ãšããïœïœãé«ãŸãå±é¢ã§ãããéå©äžæã«äŒŽãå©æãè²»ãå¢ãã以äžã«çšåãå¢å ããã
ïŒ2ïŒéå©äžæã«äŒŽãå©æãè²»ãå¢ãããšã¯ãããäžçŸ©çã«ã¯åœåµã®æ°èŠã»åæçºè¡åã®å©æãè²»ãå¢ããããŒã¿ã«ã®å©æãè²»ã®å¢å ã¯éå®çã§ããã
ããšçãèãããããå®éã«ãåç®çµæžæé·çãšé·æéå©ã«ã¯æ確ãªæ£ã®çžé¢é¢ä¿ãããäžæ¹ã§ãåœåµã®å¹³åå©åãã¯é·æéå©ã»ã©å€§ããå€åããŠããªãã
ããšããã®ãããã£ãã·ã£ãŒæ¹çšåŒãšããéå©æ±ºå®ã®çè«ã«åºã¥ãã°ãé·æéå©ã¯æåŸ
ã€ã³ãã¬çãšå®è³ªéå©ã®ä»£çå€æ°ãšãªãæœåšæé·çãšãªã¹ã¯ãã¬ãã¢ã ãåæ ããŠæ±ºãŸããšãããŠããããããŠãæåŸ
ã€ã³ãã¬çã¯å®éã®ã€ã³ãã¬çã«å·Šå³ãããæœåšæé·çãå®è³ªçµæžæé·çã®åœ±é¿ãåããããšãç¥ãããŠããããªãããªã¹ã¯ãã¬ãã¢ã ã«ã€ããŠã¯ã足å
ã§ãœããªã³ïŒ£ïŒ€ïŒ³äŸ¡æ ŒãïŒã§æ¯èŒããã°ãæ¥æ¬ã¯ãã€ãã«ã€ãã§2çªç®ã«äœãªã¹ã¯ãšãªã£ãŠããããã®ããããã®è¶³ãç®ãšãªãåç®çµæžæé·çãšé·æéå©ãé¢ä¿ããããšã¯çè«çã«ã説æã§ãããšããããã
ããã®ããã«ãé·æéå©ãäžæããå±é¢ã§ã¯åç®çµæžæé·çãé«ãŸã£ãŠçšåãå¢ãããããªãããšãé·æéå©ãäžæããŠãåœåµã®å¹³åå©åãäžæã¯éå®ãããããšçã«ãããéå©äžææã«ãããïŒïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°ãæ¹åããèŠå ãšãªã£ãŠãããšããããã
éèŠãªåç®çµæžæé·çãšé·æéå©ã®é¢ä¿
ããããããããã財æ¿ã®å¥å
šæ§ãå€æããåœéæšæºçãªææšã¯å
ã«èŠãæ¿åºåµåæ®é«ïŒïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°ã§ããããã¡ãã§å€æããã°è²¡æ¿ã®å¥å
šæ§ã«å¯Ÿããè©äŸ¡ãå€ãã£ãŠããå¯èœæ§ãé«ããå
·äœçã«ã¯ãæ¿åºåµåæ®é«ïŒïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°ã®äžæãæå¶ããããšã財æ¿å®å®åã®åœéæšæºã§ãããããããåé¡ãèããã²ãšã€ã®ç®éãšããŠïŒ°ïŒ¢é»ååãããããšããã®ããæ¿åºåµåæ®é«ããåç®ïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°ããåºç€ç財æ¿åæ¯ããé·æéå©ãïœãåç®çµæžæé·çãïœãšãããšãæ¿åºåµåæ®é«ïŒïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°ãšïŒ°ïŒ¢ã®é¢ä¿ã¯ä»¥äžã®åŒã§äžããããããšãç¥ãããŠããã
ãïŒïŒ¹ïŒïŒ°ïŒ¢ïŒïŒ¹ïŒïŒïŒïŒïœïŒïŒ€(-1)ïŒïŒïŒïŒïœïŒïŒ¹(-1)
ããã®åŒã瀺ãããã«ãã0ã§ãããïœïŒïœãšãªãã°åæã®æ¿åºåµåæ®é«ïŒïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°ãšä»æã®ããã¯çãããªãããããããã¯ãçµæžåŠã®æé©æé·è«ã®èãæ¹ã«ããã°ãè³æ¬ãåŽååãšãã£ãçç£èŠçŽ ãå
šãŠåãçã§æé·ããç¶æ
ã«ãããŠãé·æçã«æé©ãªæé·ãä¿ãå ŽåãåŽååé
çãç®å
ã®æ¶è²»ãæ倧ã«ããå Žåãããå°ãããªããã€ãŸããæé©æé·ã®å Žåã¯çžå¯Ÿçã«å°ãªãè³æ¬ã§è³ãåãè³æ¬ã®å¹çæ§ã§æ±ºãŸãå®è³ªå©åçããå®è³ªçµæžæé·çãããé«ããªããªããã°ãããªãããšã«ãªãããããŠãé·æçã«æé©ãªæé·ãä¿ãå Žåã«ã¯ãå®è³ªå©åçãçµæžæé·çãããé«ããªãããšã瀺ããããããæ¥æ¬ã¯æ¿åºåµåæ®é«ïŒïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°ã®äžæãæå¶ããããã«ïŒ°ïŒ¢é»ååãç®æšãšããŠããã
ããã ãããã§èšãå®è³ªå©åçãšã¯ãæ°éäŒæ¥ã®çºè¡ããé·æ瀟åµã®å©åããæ ªåŒã®è³æ¬åççãå«ãŸããŠããã財æ¿ã«çŽæ¥é¢ããåœåµã®å©åãã¯ããªã¹ã¯ãã¬ãã¢ã åã ãæ°éã®é·æ瀟åµãæ ªã®é
åœå©åããããäœããªãããã®ãããçµæžçè«ã«ãã£ãŠæ°éã®å®è³ªå©åçãæé·çããé«ã決ãŸããããšãã£ãŠãåœåµå©åãã®ã»ããçµæžæé·çããé«ããªããšã¯å¿
ããããããªããå®éãé·æçãªæŽå²çäºå®é¢ä¿ãèŠãŠããå€ãã®äž»èŠåœã«ã€ããŠåç®æé·çãåœåµéå©ãäžåã£ãŠããå±é¢ãå€ããã€ãŸãã財æ¿ãè°è«ãããšãã«ãé·æéå©ãåç®çµæžæé·çããå¹³åçã«é«ããªããšèããã®ã¯æ£ãããšã¯èšããªãã
ã€ã³ãã¬æãšããã¬æã§ç°ãªãïœãšïœã®é¢ä¿
ãããã§ãå®éã«éå»ååäžçŽã«ããã®ãŒã£ãŠæ¥æ¬ã®åç®æé·çãšé·æéå©ã®é¢ä¿ãèšæž¬ããŠã¿ããæšèšæ¹æ³ã¯æ¬¡ã®ãšããã§ãããããã¬ãŒã¿ãŒã®å幎æ¯ãçšããŠãããããã€ãã¹ã®ææãããã¬æããã©ã¹ã®ææãã€ã³ãã¬æãšããŠãåç®çµæžæé·çïœãšé·æéå©ïœã®å€§å°é¢ä¿ã確èªããããããŠãããããã®æã«ãããïœïŒïœã®çºç確çãèšæž¬ããã
ãäžå³ã¯ãåç®çµæžæé·çãšé·æéå©ã®é¢ä¿ãæç³»åã§æ¯èŒãããã®ã§ããããããŠãã€ã³ãã¬æãšããã¬æã§åç®çµæžæé·çãé·æéå©ãäžåã£ã確çãèšæž¬ãããšãã€ã³ãã¬æã«ã¯çŽ71ïŒ
ã®ç¢ºçã§ïœïŒïœã«ãªã£ãŠããããããã¬æã«ã¯28ïŒ
ã®ç¢ºçã«ãšã©ãŸã£ãŠããããšãããããããããããšãããããã¬æãããã€ã³ãã¬æã®æ¹ãïœïŒïœã®é¢ä¿ãäœããããã財æ¿ãå¥å
šåããããç°å¢ãšãªãããšããããã
ããããŠãïœïŒïœã®æã«éå©ãäžæããŠã財æ¿ãæ¹åãããããªãããšãçŽèŠ³çã«èª¬æããã°ãïœã¯æ¿åºæ¯åºã«å¯Ÿããè³é調éã³ã¹ããïœã¯çµæžæé·ã«äŒŽããªã¿ãŒã³ãšãªãããããŠãåœç¶ïœãäžæããã°ããã®åæãå©è²»è² æ
ãå¢ããããšã«ãªããããããïœãããïœãé«ãå±é¢ã§ããã°ãå©æãè² æ
ãäžåãçšåã®å¢å ãæåŸ
ãããå¿
ããã財æ¿ãæªåãããšãéããªãããšããããã
ããããŠäœããããã€ã³ãã¬ã®å±é¢ã§ã¯ïœïŒïœã®ç°å¢ãæŽãããããªãããšãéèŠã§ãããã€ãŸããããã«åŽ©å£ããã¢ãããã¯ã¹ä»¥åã®ããã¬ã®å±é¢ã§ã¯é·æéå©ã«éè² å¶çŽãããããšããïœïŒïœã«ãªãããããçµæãšããŠè²¡æ¿ãæªåããããç°å¢ã«ãã£ããããããã¢ãããã¯ã¹ä»¥éã®ã€ã³ãã¬å±é¢ã§ã¯é»ç°æ¥éã«ããç·©åå¹æãããïœïŒïœã«ãªããããç°å¢ã«ãããç¹ã«è¶³å
ã®ããã«ã€ã³ãã¬ãå®çãã€ã€ããå±é¢ã§éå©äžæã®åŽé¢ã®ã¿ãåãäžããŠè°è«ãããšã財æ¿ãžã®åœ±é¿ããã¹ãªãŒãããŠããŸãå¯èœæ§ãããã
ïœãšïœã®é¢ä¿ã§æ±ãããã財æ¿ç®æšã®çµã¿åãã
ãã€ãŸããç¹ã«2021幎以éã«æ³åºã倧ããæžããªãäžã§ãæ¿åºåµåæ®é«ïŒïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°ã倧ããæ¹åããŠããèæ¯ã«ã¯ãäžççãªã€ã³ãã¬ã«ããäŒæ¥ã®äŸ¡æ Œè»¢å«ã¡ã«ããºã ã埩掻ããïœïŒïœã®ç°å¢ãæŽãããããªã£ãããšãããããããŠããããããã¯ãç°å¢ã®å€åãç¡èŠããŠãããã¬æãšåæ§ã«è²¡æ¿èŠåŸãé床ã«æèããŠè¡ãéããç·çž®è²¡æ¿è·¯ç·ãé²ããŠããŸããšãæ°ééšéããæ¿åºéšéãžã®é床ãªæåŸç§»è»¢ãããããå±éºæ§ãããã財æ¿ã¯æ¹åããŠãå€ãã®åœæ°ãçµæžæé·ã®æ©æµãåããããªããªãå¯èœæ§ããããå®éã«ãçšåãšåç®ïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°ã®é¢ä¿ãèŠããšãç¹ã«ã€ã³ãã¬ãå®çãã2021幎以éã«ãããŸã§ã®åç®ïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°ãšã®é¢ä¿ãããçšåã倧ãã䌞ã³ãŠããããšããããã
ãããããããšããããã°ãæ¿åºã¯å°ãªããšãïœïŒïœãšãªã£ãŠããå±é¢ã§ã¯çŽç²ãªïŒ°ïŒ¢é»ååã«é床ã«ãã ãããã財æ¿èŠåŸãæè»åããæ段ããšãã¹ãã ããããããŠãå°æ¥ã®çµæžæé·ã«åœ¹ç«ã€ãããªè³¢ãæ¯åºãå¢å ãããæéãªè² æ
å¢ã«ã¯æ
éã«å¯Ÿå¿ããã¹ã¿ã³ã¹ãéèŠãšããããã
ãäºå®ããã¯ãçµæžåŠã®äžççæš©åšã§ãããªãªãŽã£ãšã»ãã©ã³ã·ã£ãŒã«æ°ãã¯ã21 äžçŽã®è²¡æ¿æ¿çãïŒæ¥æ¬çµæžæ°èåºç瀟ïŒã®äžã§ã財æ¿æ¿çã«ã€ããŠãçŽç²è²¡æ¿ããšãæ©èœç財æ¿ãã®ã¢ãããŒãããããšããŠããããããŠãé·æåæ»ã«ããéèæ¿çã®äœå°ã倧å¹
ã«å€±ãããŠããæ³å®ã®äžã§ã¯ããã¯ãçµæžå®å®åã®ããã«è²¡æ¿æ¿çã«çŠç¹ãåœãŠããæ©èœç財æ¿ã¢ãããŒãããæãŸãããšããäžæ¹ã§ãéèæ¿çã«ãã£ãŠïŒ§ïŒ€ïŒ°ãæœåšæ°Žæºã«ç¶æã§ããç¶æ³ã§æ¿åºåµåã倧ãããã°ãçŽç²è²¡æ¿ã¢ãããŒããã«ããæ¿åºåµåã®çž®å°ã«çŠç¹ãåœãŠãã¹ããšããæ°ééèŠã®åŒ·ãã«å¿ããŠããããã®ã¢ãããŒããé©åã«çµã¿åãããã¹ããšããŠããã
ãããããããšããããã°ãäŸãã°çŸç¶ã®ãããªïœïŒïœã®å±é¢ã§ã¯ã€ã³ãã¬ã«ãã財æ¿æ¹åãå å³ããç®æšãæ€èšããããšã§è²¡æ¿èŠåŸãæè»åããäžæ¹ã§ãä»®ã«çµæžãéç±ããŠïœïŒïœãšãªãç°å¢ã«ãªã£ãæã«ã¯ãçŽç²ãªïŒ°ïŒ¢ç®æšã«ã·ãããããšããããã«ãçµæžç°å¢ã«å¿ããŠè²¡æ¿ç®æšãæè»ã«å€æŽãããããªããšãæ€èšãã¹ãã ããïŒã€ã³ãã¬çãå å³ããç®æšã«ã€ããŠã¯ãã€ã³ãã¬ã§å€§å¹
æ¹åããæ¿åºåµåæ®é«/ïœãã€ã³ãã¬çãå å³ãããé»ååç®æšã®æ€èšãïœããåç
§ïŒã
ïŒæïŒæ°žæ¿±å©å»£ïŒç¬¬äžçåœçµæžç 究æçµæžèª¿æ»éšéŠåžãšã³ããã¹ãïŒ
ïŒåèæç®ïŒ
ãªãªãŽã£ãšã»ãã©ã³ã·ã£ãŒã«ãç°ä»£æ¯
ã21 äžçŽã®è²¡æ¿æ¿çãïŒ2023 幎ãæ¥æ¬çµæžæ°èåºçïŒ
氞濱å©å»£ãã€ã³ãã¬ã§å€§å¹
æ¹åããæ¿åºåµåæ®é«/ïœãã€ã³ãã¬çãå å³ãããé»ååç®æšã®æ€èšãïœãïŒ2024幎ã第äžçåœçµæžç 究æEconomic TrendsïŒ